Friday, April 27, 2012

In just eight days, twenty horses will load in the gate for the greatest two minutes in sports, the Kentucky Derby. As usual, the race shapes up as a wide-open affair, with a case to be made for over half the contenders. Who will emerge from this cavalry charge as the post time favorite? Bodemeister, the sensational winner of the Arkansas Derby, seems the likeliest favorite. His 9 1/2 length triumph at Oaklawn cemented the Bob Baffert-trained colt as a rising star, and he's the only horse with three 100+ Beyer Speed Figures (no one else has two, much less three.) Still, he carries the onus of being unraced as a two-year-old, and is also a front-running speedball in a race loaded with similarly-styled colts. Last fall, Union Rags seemed like the likely Derby favorite, and he still might be yet. After a powerful win in the Fountain of Youth, he was upset by Take Charge Indy in the Florida Derby. However, that has done little to dissuade his staunch supporters, and he'll still get plenty of backing at Churchill Downs next week. Gemologist, Todd Pletcher-trained, and the son of two-time Breeders' Cup Classic champion Tiznow, is a perfect 5 for 5, and very well might be the "steam" horse with bettors next week. The Wood Memorial winner has flown under the radar somewhat so far, but it's not inconceivable that he could wind up as the favorite...and nor it is inconceivable that he'll be wearing a garland of roses next Saturday night. Dullahan is another horse whose star is rising fast. He won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland with a powerful closing kick. However, he's done his best work of turf and synthetic tracks, sporting a winless record on dirt. That said, last year's Derby winner Animal Kingdom also entered the race with no prior dirt victories. Bettors may look at Dullahan's late-running style and decide that in a race full of speed, he is deserved of favorite status. Finally, Hansen is the reigning two-year-old champion, and scored a sparkling win over the Churchill Downs oval in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. His disappointing loss in the Blue Grass may have ended his chances at being the favorite, but never underestimate the allure of a beautiful white horse to 150,000 drunken revelers on Derby Day. I'll be back next week to analyze the race, and provide you with my oh-so-valuable selections.

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