Saturday marks the 136th running of the Preakness Stakes, the middle jewel of horse racing's Triple Crown. Animal Kingdom scored an upset in the Kentucky Derby at 21-1, but this handicapper had him tapped as a top contender, and 2nd choice overall. Can he win again in Baltimore, and head to the Belmont as racing's Next Great Hope?
Racing in Maryland is dying. The Preakness has pretty much become the only meaningful day in a state rich with thoroughbred tradition. Still, over the past decade, the Preakness has emerged as the key race among the three Triple Crown events. While the Derby has produced a string of winners that went on to accomplish little else (Giacomo, Mine That Bird, Super Saver), the Preakness has produced a host of champions that include Rachel Alexandra, Curlin, Afleet Alex, Bernardini, and Lookin at Lucky. Lately, the Preakness has not been producing flukes.
The New Guns: There was a time when running in the Derby was a key factor to winning the Preakness, and while I still think that there's some merit to that, Bernardini & Rachel Alexandra are recent examples that it can be done without the Derby experience. 9 of this year's 14 Preakness contenders enter the fray without a Derby start. Dance City and Sway Away both enter off the Arkansas Derby, finishing 3rd and 4th, respectively. While Nehro's Derby performance flatters that race, I still see neither as likely to show the required improvement to compete here...Flashpoint was an impressive winner of the 7f Hutcheson Stakes earlier this year, and will be a pace factor, but doesn't seem capable of carrying them the full 1 3/16...Norman Asborjson is the local horse, and Maryland trainees often crack the bottom part of the exotics. Based on his last two New Tork races, he's at least playable...The same cannot be said of King Congie (poor dirt form), Isn't He Perfect (overmatched), and Concealed Identity (huge step up in class). Any of those three hitting the board would surprise me, but would certainly juice up the payouts...Astrology is an intriguing contender. The Steve Asmussen trainee got going late this year due to injury problems, but has finished second in both his 2011 starts. Draws the rail, and if can make an easy lead, could be a major factor...The most promising newbie is Mr. Commons . The lightly-raced colt has been training marvelously --- so marvelously that he caused John Sheriffs, who trained no less a superstar than Zenyatta, to exclaim, "I don't think I've ever seen a horse come out of a work as well as he did." Eligible for a big improvement, I think he's a dangerous longshot.
The Derby Boys: In labeling Animal Kingdom a top contender in this spot two weeks ago, I said that he would "offer fantastic value at the betting window." That he did. The same can't be said for the Preakness, where he'll likely be 3-1 or less. Still a top contender no doubt, but without much value...Shackleford figures to run a similar race to his Derby, which means he'll make the pace. Without much speed to contend him, he held on for 4th in Louisville. A lot more speed here probably means a fade job...Midnight Interlude finished a disappointing 16th in the Derby, but is back for more. Trainer Bob Baffert says the race took nothing out of him; perhaps the Santa Anita Derby winner just needed a Derby prep...Mucho Macho Man rallied for third at Churchill Downs, and has every look of a horse peaking at the right time. With a more serious pace to run at, he is serious threat to wear the black-eyed susans...Beaten Derby favorite Dialed In should also benefit from a more honest pace. Jockey Julian Leperoux waited forever to make his move in the Derby, and indeed ran a blstering final half-mile --- but still finished 8th. Every possible factor points to the colt continuing to improve, as well as facing a much more advantageous pace scenario.
And The Winner Is: Dialed In. He had a lot going against him two weeks ago, but much of that can be chalked up to lessons. Both he and Animal Kingdom figure to be flying down the Pimlico stretch, and whichever gets the first jump will likely win the race. Leperoux won't be so patient this time. Dialed In gets the win, with Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man, and Mr. Commons filling out the superfecta.
Good luck, may they all come back safe...and All Hail Kegasus!
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Thursday, May 5, 2011
The entries are in, the post positions are drawn, it's time to analyze the field for the 2011 Kentucky Derby!
The Toss-Outs: Brilliant Speed won the Bluegrass Stakes over the Keeneland polytrack, but has yet to show any form on dirt...Twinspired was second in that race, and while he looks like a horse who can get the distance, he too has shown no ability on dirt. Great name for Churchill Downs though...Watch Me Go was the shocking winner of the Tampa Bay Derby, but doesn't appear to have ever finished ahead of any quality horses...Comma To The Top is well-seasoned, with 6 wins in 13 starts, but figures to need the lead, a style that doesn't strike me as a winning one in this year's field...and then there's Uncle Mo, the 2010 juvenile champion, and one-time presumed favorite for the race. His connections entered him, but appear to still be wavering on whether he'll make the starting gate --- not exactly confidence-inspiring. He can take your money, he won't be taking mine.
Can't Be Completely Dismissed: Santiva has a nice stakes race in Louisville as a two-year old, but has struggled to get anything going this year. Talent is there, but might not be seasoned enough...Twice The Appeal gets Kentucky Derby magician Calvin Borel in the irons, and that's the only reason he's not in the toss-out category...Shackleford nearly shocked the field at 68-1 in the Florida Derby, and figures to be gunning for the lead from the start on Saturday. I'm skeptical that he's going to be a major factor, but he does move up on a wet track...Midnight Interlude comes from the strong barn of Bob Baffert, and looked sharp in winning the Santa Anita Derby. But no horse has ever won the Derby without a race as a two-year old, and Midnight Interlude falls into that category...Master Of Hounds has a jinx to beat as well; no horse has won the Derby while exclusively prepping overseas. The Irish shipper looked strong in his March appearance in Dubai, but asking him to ship over the win may be too daunting a task.
We're Getting Warmer: Nehro seems to have assumed the role of "wiseguy" horse, and will likely attract more betting action than of which he's worthy. He's obviously a talented closer, but you would have liked to have seen get up for the victories to feel a little more inspired...Mucho Macho Man may have the best backstory, trained by heart-transplant recipient Kathy Ritvo. The Risen Star winner took a step back in the Louisiana Derby, but may have had a disadvantageous set-up that day...Pants On Fire was the winner in New Orleans that day, and gives Rosie Napravnik the first Derby mount for a female jockey since 2003. There are some things to like here, but may not get the dream trip he got at the Fair Grounds...Derby Kitten snuck into the field when Toby's Corner was declared out with an injury, and the Lexington Stakes winner could make the most of it. Another who will benefit greatly from an off track...Who would have thought that Todd Pletcher's bigger Derby bullet would wind up being Stay Thirsty? But that appears to be the case. He was an impressive winner in the Gotham, but failed miserably in the Florida Derby. Definite candidate for a bounce-back performance.
The Top Contenders: Dialed In looks like the favorite off his Florida Derby win, and it's easy to see why. That said, he was all-out to catch a tiring Shackleford, and that may not bode entirely well for the long Churchill stretch...Archarcharch was an impressive winner of the Arkansas, and looks primed for a repeat effort in Kentucky. However, he drew the dreaded post position #1, which may force Jon Court to have him closer to the early lead than he would like...Soldat had done nothing wrong before a disappointing fifth in the Florida Derby. Trainer Kieran McLaughlin offers some valid excuses for that failure though, and I've never seen him this high on a horse before. The #17 hole also figures to bode well for the stalking trip he'll need to contend...Animal Kingdom makes his first start on dirt on Saturday, but has been training brilliantly over the Churchill oval. His win in the Spiral Stakes in March was the most visually appealing of any of the Derby preps to me, and is going to offer fantastic value at the betting window...Offering an even bigger value is the runner-up in that race, Decisive Moment. The Spiral wasn't the fastest race, nor has Decisive Moment posted the fastest times elsewhere, but something about this gritty horse with low-profile connections and breeding make me think he's sitting on a huge race. Figures to go off at least at 40-1, and could make his backers very happy come Saturday night.
And Your 2011 Kentucky Derby Winner Is: Soldat. Wavered between selecting any of the the last 5 listed (and indeed will have assorted wagers on all of them), but Soldat looks just a little stronger than the rest. Forgive the Florida Derby fiasco; if he can avoid getting into a needless speed duel, he'll get a nice stalking trip from the outside post, and cruise to victory in the lane.
Good luck to everybody, and may all the colts come back safe and sound.
Follow me on Twitter at @KyDerbyJay
The Toss-Outs: Brilliant Speed won the Bluegrass Stakes over the Keeneland polytrack, but has yet to show any form on dirt...Twinspired was second in that race, and while he looks like a horse who can get the distance, he too has shown no ability on dirt. Great name for Churchill Downs though...Watch Me Go was the shocking winner of the Tampa Bay Derby, but doesn't appear to have ever finished ahead of any quality horses...Comma To The Top is well-seasoned, with 6 wins in 13 starts, but figures to need the lead, a style that doesn't strike me as a winning one in this year's field...and then there's Uncle Mo, the 2010 juvenile champion, and one-time presumed favorite for the race. His connections entered him, but appear to still be wavering on whether he'll make the starting gate --- not exactly confidence-inspiring. He can take your money, he won't be taking mine.
Can't Be Completely Dismissed: Santiva has a nice stakes race in Louisville as a two-year old, but has struggled to get anything going this year. Talent is there, but might not be seasoned enough...Twice The Appeal gets Kentucky Derby magician Calvin Borel in the irons, and that's the only reason he's not in the toss-out category...Shackleford nearly shocked the field at 68-1 in the Florida Derby, and figures to be gunning for the lead from the start on Saturday. I'm skeptical that he's going to be a major factor, but he does move up on a wet track...Midnight Interlude comes from the strong barn of Bob Baffert, and looked sharp in winning the Santa Anita Derby. But no horse has ever won the Derby without a race as a two-year old, and Midnight Interlude falls into that category...Master Of Hounds has a jinx to beat as well; no horse has won the Derby while exclusively prepping overseas. The Irish shipper looked strong in his March appearance in Dubai, but asking him to ship over the win may be too daunting a task.
We're Getting Warmer: Nehro seems to have assumed the role of "wiseguy" horse, and will likely attract more betting action than of which he's worthy. He's obviously a talented closer, but you would have liked to have seen get up for the victories to feel a little more inspired...Mucho Macho Man may have the best backstory, trained by heart-transplant recipient Kathy Ritvo. The Risen Star winner took a step back in the Louisiana Derby, but may have had a disadvantageous set-up that day...Pants On Fire was the winner in New Orleans that day, and gives Rosie Napravnik the first Derby mount for a female jockey since 2003. There are some things to like here, but may not get the dream trip he got at the Fair Grounds...Derby Kitten snuck into the field when Toby's Corner was declared out with an injury, and the Lexington Stakes winner could make the most of it. Another who will benefit greatly from an off track...Who would have thought that Todd Pletcher's bigger Derby bullet would wind up being Stay Thirsty? But that appears to be the case. He was an impressive winner in the Gotham, but failed miserably in the Florida Derby. Definite candidate for a bounce-back performance.
The Top Contenders: Dialed In looks like the favorite off his Florida Derby win, and it's easy to see why. That said, he was all-out to catch a tiring Shackleford, and that may not bode entirely well for the long Churchill stretch...Archarcharch was an impressive winner of the Arkansas, and looks primed for a repeat effort in Kentucky. However, he drew the dreaded post position #1, which may force Jon Court to have him closer to the early lead than he would like...Soldat had done nothing wrong before a disappointing fifth in the Florida Derby. Trainer Kieran McLaughlin offers some valid excuses for that failure though, and I've never seen him this high on a horse before. The #17 hole also figures to bode well for the stalking trip he'll need to contend...Animal Kingdom makes his first start on dirt on Saturday, but has been training brilliantly over the Churchill oval. His win in the Spiral Stakes in March was the most visually appealing of any of the Derby preps to me, and is going to offer fantastic value at the betting window...Offering an even bigger value is the runner-up in that race, Decisive Moment. The Spiral wasn't the fastest race, nor has Decisive Moment posted the fastest times elsewhere, but something about this gritty horse with low-profile connections and breeding make me think he's sitting on a huge race. Figures to go off at least at 40-1, and could make his backers very happy come Saturday night.
And Your 2011 Kentucky Derby Winner Is: Soldat. Wavered between selecting any of the the last 5 listed (and indeed will have assorted wagers on all of them), but Soldat looks just a little stronger than the rest. Forgive the Florida Derby fiasco; if he can avoid getting into a needless speed duel, he'll get a nice stalking trip from the outside post, and cruise to victory in the lane.
Good luck to everybody, and may all the colts come back safe and sound.
Follow me on Twitter at @KyDerbyJay
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
The Run for the Roses is just three days away, and by the time you read this, I'll be making my way to the Bluegrass State for a bourbon-soaked week unlike any other. Along the way, I hope to cash a winning ticket or two. Whether you will be at Churchill Downs, another track or OTB, or wagering with an online account, hopefully you'll cash a ticket too.
The Kentucky Derby offers some unique wagering opportunities that don't exist in your everyday horse race. For one, twenty horses will go to the post, which means twenty unique betting interests, otherwise unheard of in North American racing. Secondly, because of the deep field, a good portion of these colts will go off at higher odds than they ever have, or likely ever will. That, in and of itself, provides solid value for your standard win, place, and show wagers. If that's your cup of tea, by all means, go for it. However, I'm here to suggest a few other wagering strategies that very well might result in a jackpot payoff.
One wager I'd recommend considering is an "all" exacta wheel. Just as the win, place, and show pools offer unusual value, so does the exacta pool. As such, even a payout with two favorites will result in a pretty decent payday. The idea here is to make your pick for top choice, and then use him as both the top and bottom of an exacta wheel with the entire field. In a 20-horse field, with a $1 wager, this will cost you $38.00. The advantage here is that your horse has to finish first or second, and you don't need to worry about who fills out the exacta. A good example of how this strategy can result in a very sweet return is the 2009 Derby. Pioneerofthenile was the 2nd choice in the field of 19, and a very logical choice to use for a bet of this type. He finished second behind 50-1 bomb Mine That Bird. the result: a $1037 payout on a $36 bet.
Another wager to consider is the Oaks/Derby Double. The Kentucky Oaks , for three-year old fillies, is run the day before the Derby, and has become nearly the level of extravaganza as the Derby. This bet is just what you would expect --- in order to cash, you need to pick the winner of both races. This year's Oaks field has 13 entries, and Joyful Victory looks like a solid favorite. You could try pairing her up with the entire Derby field for a $40 investment; if she wins, then you can root for a mega-longshot to win on Saturday. Or, conversely, you could pair up your Derby choice with the entire Oaks field for a $26 imposition. Or, just pick a few horses in each race. Either way, it's a fun bet that has become extremely popular among the Churchill Downs crowd.
Finally, how about a group wager? Over the past few years, there have been some enormous trifecta payouts, even when a favorite like Barbaro in 2006 wins. For this, get together a group of 5 or 6 people and have everybody pick a horse. Then box all the selections in a $1 trifecta. For 6 people, it's a $120 price (20 bucks a person), or for 5 people it's $60 ($12 per person). This is an exercise that some of my friends and I have engaged in for many years now, sometimes to great success, and sometimes to excruciating failure. That 2006 result...we had Bluegrass Cat and Steppenwolfer, the 2nd and 3rd place finishers...but no Barbaro. Yes, we needed to be punched in the face, as that trifecta returned a cool $5709.
Later this afternoon, Derby post positions will be drawn. Once I've had a chance to digest what effect the draw might have on the race, I'll be back Friday with my race preview and selections. In the meantime, grab a racing form, make yourself a mint julep, and get ready for Saturday's race. I know I will!
Follow me on Twitter @KyDerbyJay.
The Kentucky Derby offers some unique wagering opportunities that don't exist in your everyday horse race. For one, twenty horses will go to the post, which means twenty unique betting interests, otherwise unheard of in North American racing. Secondly, because of the deep field, a good portion of these colts will go off at higher odds than they ever have, or likely ever will. That, in and of itself, provides solid value for your standard win, place, and show wagers. If that's your cup of tea, by all means, go for it. However, I'm here to suggest a few other wagering strategies that very well might result in a jackpot payoff.
One wager I'd recommend considering is an "all" exacta wheel. Just as the win, place, and show pools offer unusual value, so does the exacta pool. As such, even a payout with two favorites will result in a pretty decent payday. The idea here is to make your pick for top choice, and then use him as both the top and bottom of an exacta wheel with the entire field. In a 20-horse field, with a $1 wager, this will cost you $38.00. The advantage here is that your horse has to finish first or second, and you don't need to worry about who fills out the exacta. A good example of how this strategy can result in a very sweet return is the 2009 Derby. Pioneerofthenile was the 2nd choice in the field of 19, and a very logical choice to use for a bet of this type. He finished second behind 50-1 bomb Mine That Bird. the result: a $1037 payout on a $36 bet.
Another wager to consider is the Oaks/Derby Double. The Kentucky Oaks , for three-year old fillies, is run the day before the Derby, and has become nearly the level of extravaganza as the Derby. This bet is just what you would expect --- in order to cash, you need to pick the winner of both races. This year's Oaks field has 13 entries, and Joyful Victory looks like a solid favorite. You could try pairing her up with the entire Derby field for a $40 investment; if she wins, then you can root for a mega-longshot to win on Saturday. Or, conversely, you could pair up your Derby choice with the entire Oaks field for a $26 imposition. Or, just pick a few horses in each race. Either way, it's a fun bet that has become extremely popular among the Churchill Downs crowd.
Finally, how about a group wager? Over the past few years, there have been some enormous trifecta payouts, even when a favorite like Barbaro in 2006 wins. For this, get together a group of 5 or 6 people and have everybody pick a horse. Then box all the selections in a $1 trifecta. For 6 people, it's a $120 price (20 bucks a person), or for 5 people it's $60 ($12 per person). This is an exercise that some of my friends and I have engaged in for many years now, sometimes to great success, and sometimes to excruciating failure. That 2006 result...we had Bluegrass Cat and Steppenwolfer, the 2nd and 3rd place finishers...but no Barbaro. Yes, we needed to be punched in the face, as that trifecta returned a cool $5709.
Later this afternoon, Derby post positions will be drawn. Once I've had a chance to digest what effect the draw might have on the race, I'll be back Friday with my race preview and selections. In the meantime, grab a racing form, make yourself a mint julep, and get ready for Saturday's race. I know I will!
Follow me on Twitter @KyDerbyJay.
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